The latest IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, released in July 2024, shows that between April and September 2024, an estimated 2.8 million people in Mozambique will be in crisis levels (IPC3) or worse, including 510,000 people in IPC phase 4 (emergency) and 2.3 million people in IPC phase 3 (crisis). According to the analysis, of the seven districts projected to be at emergency levels, three are located in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, which has been facing armed conflict since 2017.
It is estimated that approximately 144,000 children under the age of 5 are affected by acute malnutrition.
The hunger situation is expected to worsen between October 2024 and March 2025, when about 3.3 million people are estimated to be in crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, with 777,000 people expected to be in emergency levels
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a collaborative initiative involving more than 20 partners, including governments, United Nations agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The initiative uses global, scientific standards to assess levels of food insecurity. The IPC Acute Food Insecurity Scale consists of five classifications: (1) minimal/none, (2) stressed, (3) crisis, (4) emergency, and (5) catastrophe/famine.
The main drivers of food insecurity in Mozambique include the El Niño-induced drought and its impact on agricultural production, Tropical Storm Filipo, which hit the country in March this year, and other climate-related shocks, as well as the ongoing conflict in northern Mozambique.
As much of Southern Africa faces an unprecedented mid-season dry spell, Mozambique's food security situation continues to deteriorate. The combined effects of El Niño, above-average temperatures, and extreme weather events such as excessive flooding are exacerbating the situation.
The 2023-2024 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, bringing below-average rainfall to southern and central Mozambique between October 2023 and February 2024 and average to above-average rainfall to the northern part of the country, disrupting agriculture and rural livelihoods.
Between November 2023 and February 2024, the typical rainy season in Mozambique, the southern and central regions of the country experienced prolonged dryness and unusually high temperatures, and many areas received less than half of their typical rainfall.
As a result, vegetation conditions deteriorated and crops wilted in parts of the central provinces. The 2023/2024 main cropping season was affected by a drought that occurred around the critical cropping period from December 2023 to February 2024, with a consecutive 30-day dry spell.
More than 171,000 people were affected by Tropical Storm Filipo this year, while the country still suffers from the lingering effects of past shocks such as Tropical Cyclone Freddy last year. The double landfall of record storm Freddy in February and March 2023, one year after the devastating Tropical Cyclone Gombe, caused extensive damage, claimed nearly 200 lives, left more than 184,000 people homeless and affected a total of about 1.2 million men, women and children in the country.
Approximately 20 million people live in drought-affected areas. In addition to these climate-related shocks, above-average food prices will make it difficult for poor and very poor households to access food from markets.
An assessment by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) found a 25 percent reduction in the national planted area from the previous year due to drought. Projected maize production was 20 percent below the 5-year average.
According to the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET), the effects of the lean season, including the rapid depletion of below-average food stocks for families who were able to harvest some of their own crops, combined with above-average food prices and below-average incomes, will lead to an expansion of areas experiencing crisis levels of food insecurity.
The armed conflict in northern Mozambique has increased food insecurity and malnutrition. Families have been forced to abandon their homes and fields, and erratic rainfall in some parts of the region has exacerbated crop losses.
The insurgency in Cabo Delgado province is an ongoing conflict primarily between Islamic militants and jihadists, who seek to establish an Islamic state in the region, and the Mozambican army and security forces. Since 2017, Mozambique has faced armed violence, with some attacks claimed by a militant group calling itself the Islamic State Mozambique (ISM).
Since December 2023, attacks have escalated in the northern province, characterized by violence against civilians, forced displacement, and damage to civilian infrastructure. Insurgents have targeted security forces and civilians, and have made unprecedented efforts to burn churches.
The highest level of displacement occurred in February of this year, when more than 90,000 people fled their homes. The attacks came in the middle of the harvest season, leaving farmers with no choice but to abandon their fields and livestock.
Between mid-April and mid-May this year, violence by non-state armed groups (NSAGs) displaced nearly 60,000 people in northern areas of Cabo Delgado.
The latest waves of violence come against the backdrop of the return of IDPs in 2023. Over the past year, the humanitarian situation in northern Mozambique was marked by a steady return of displaced people to their home districts. People returned because of improved security, a desire to reunite with their families, and to secure their land and cultivate crops.
As of May 2024, approximately 834,000 people remain internally displaced due to violence perpetrated by armed groups. People in the north have endured multiple waves of displacement in recent years.
Ongoing attacks in Cabo Delgado continue to limit humanitarian access and raise security concerns for humanitarian workers operating in affected areas, further limiting the ability of relief actors to reach vulnerable populations with critical assistance, according to non-governmental organizations.
The United Nations estimates that 2.3 million children, women and men in Mozambique are in need of humanitarian assistance in 2024, most of them in Cabo Delgado and the neighboring provinces of Niassa and Nampula.
According to the 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP), the world body is seeking US$413 million to provide humanitarian assistance to 1.7 million of Mozambique's most vulnerable people. However, humanitarian operations in Mozambique are facing severe funding shortfalls. As of July 25, the Plan is only 28 percent funded.