The non-governmental organization (NGO) Danish Refugee Council (DRC) predicts that global forced displacement will surge in the next two years, with 4.2 million people newly displaced in 2025 alone, and a further 2.5 million people expected to flee their communities in search of safety and protection in 2026. The grim forecast comes at a time when global displacement is already at an all-time high, with some 123 million people currently forcibly displaced around the world.
The Global Displacement Forecast Report 2025, released on Friday, says the dramatic increase in displacement will occur against the backdrop of a devastating withdrawal of international aid by the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany, leaving millions of vulnerable people without essential support.
"We live in an age of war and impunity, and civilians are paying the heaviest price," said Charlotte Slente, Secretary General of the Danish Refugee Council.
"6.7 million people displaced over the next two years. These are not cold statistics. These are families forced to flee their homes, carrying next to nothing, and searching for water, food, and shelter," she said.
Of the 6.7 million people projected to be displaced by the end of 2026, about 70 percent will be internally displaced.
According to the DRC analysis, the number of countries with a projected increase of more than 250,000 displaced people over the next two years has more than doubled since last year's forecast. The civil wars in Sudan and Myanmar will account for nearly half of all projected displacement.
Other countries expected to experience a surge in displacement due to armed conflict, climate change, the legacy of war and socio-economic instability include Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Yemen and Venezuela.
Globally, Sudan is the world's largest displacement and hunger crisis. DRC projections show that it will remain the most pressing humanitarian crisis, with an additional 2.1 million people displaced by the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, in Myanmar, an intense multi-front civil war has intensified, resulting in 3.5 million internally displaced people (IDPs) and nearly 20 million people, or one-third of the population, in need of humanitarian assistance. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1.4 million people are expected to be newly displaced by the end of 2026.
In Yemen, the number of additional displaced people is expected to increase by nearly 400,000 by the end of 2026. Yemen is the fifth-largest internal displacement crisis in the world, with an estimated 4.8 million internally displaced people, the majority of whom are women and children.
The Danish Refugee Council warned that at a time when humanitarian needs are at an all-time high, the United States, for years the world's largest global donor, has terminated 83 percent of contracts with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and other major donors such as Germany, for years the world's second-largest humanitarian donor, are also cutting aid.
According to a DRC analysis included in this year's report, the elimination of all US aid could result in 57 million fewer people being reached with life-saving humanitarian assistance.
"Millions are facing starvation and displacement, and just as they need us most, wealthy nations are slashing aid. It's a betrayal of the most vulnerable," said Slente.
"We’re in the middle of a global ‘perfect storm’: Record displacement, surging needs, and devastating funding cuts. Major donors are abandoning their duty, leaving millions to suffer. This is more than a crisis. It is a moral failure."
According to DRC, the increase in displacement and severe funding cuts will be particularly felt in low-income countries, which are hosting the majority of displaced people while facing their own socio-economic and climate-related challenges.
“These countries, already struggling with high levels of poverty and vulnerability to climate change, are shouldering the responsibility of hosting the majority of the world’s displaced despite not receiving adequate financial and technical support to do so,” the report said.
DRC calls on the international community to urgently address this global crisis, act on its projections, and fund life-saving assistance before these crises spiral further out of control. The NGO also calls on warring parties to protect civilians and end impunity for those who violate international humanitarian law.
According to the report, the targeting of civilians, health care and health workers increased by 8 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, 16 of the 27 countries in its forecast have very high or extreme restrictions on humanitarian access.
“Not only do we see a surge in conflict and displacement, but humanitarian efforts are also being significantly hampered, particularly because of insufficient funding, increasingly dangerous operating environments, and restricted humanitarian access to affected populations,” the report said.
The Danish Refugee Council is an international humanitarian organization that assists displaced people around the world. Founded in 1956, DRC is Denmark's largest non-governmental organization.
The organization works in more than 40 countries and is one of the world's leading NGOs working with refugees and internally displaced persons. The Danish Refugee Council works in all phases of displacement, providing protection and life-saving humanitarian assistance. The headquarters of the humanitarian organization are in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Further information
Full text: Global Displacement Forecast 2025, Danish Refugee Council (DRC), report, published March 14, 2025
https://drc.ngo/media/ux2ln1xp/250120_global_displacement_forecast_report_2025_final.pdf