The trauma of mass displacement and humanitarian supply chain disruptions throughout the world are among the devastating impacts of the war in Iran and the wider Middle East, UN humanitarian officials warned on Tuesday. As the conflict shows no signs of easing, the breakdown of supply networks is worsening global hunger, putting up to 45 million additional people at risk and pushing already vulnerable communities closer to catastrophe.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon have already caused widespread displacement. Speaking from Damascus, Asseer Al-Madaien, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR)'s representative in Syria, said the country has seen a "sharp rise" in people crossing the border from Lebanon — more than 200,000 since March 2.
“The vast majority, nearly 180,000, are Syrians, including Syrian refugees who had fled Syria seeking safety in the past in Lebanon and now forced to flee again,” she said, adding that more than 28,000 Lebanese also have crossed into Syria.
“Most are people fleeing the intense Israeli bombardments,” Al-Madaien told reporters in Geneva. “They arrive exhausted, traumatized and with very, very few belongings.”
The UNHCR representative said the agency is preparing for up to 350,000 people to cross into Syria, depending on the course of the conflict. The immediate needs of those arriving in Syria from Lebanon include food, shelter, healthcare, and livelihoods.
Meanwhile, inside Lebanon, more than 1.1 million people — about a fifth of the population — have been displaced over the past four weeks, including more than 370,000 children. As Israeli attacks continue, the humanitarian situation in Lebanon is rapidly deteriorating.
Global supply chain disruptions drive global hunger crisis
The ongoing conflict is also triggering far-reaching global consequences. Over a month has passed since Israel and the United States initiated a war on Iran, sparking a wider regional conflict. Supply lines across the Middle East have already been severely disrupted — the most significant shock since the start of the war in Ukraine and the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic.
Corinne Fleischer, the Director of Supply Chain at the UN World Food Programme (WFP), said that the agency is concerned about "all [its] big operations."
WFP currently has “70,000 metric tons of food that is impacted by the war […]. About half of them are on chartered bulk vessels and the other half are on in containers which are either on route or stuck in a port and don't move,” she said.
Speaking from Rome, Fleischer clarified that WFP has no vessels in the Strait of Hormuz but is impacted “by the ripple effect of what's happening there […] vessels being stuck in ports, not berthing to ports, not leaving ports, containers not being offloaded”.
The WFP official warned that similar global supply chain disruptions seen during COVID took “four to five months to get back into place once the situation's stabilized”.
Shipping costs have surged as carriers avoid the Suez Canal linked to the Middle East war and have to re-route around the Cape of Good Hope. This adds up to 30 days to the journey and has driven rates up 15 to 25 percent, with fuel price hikes also hitting firms’ bottom lines.
Regarding mitigating measures, Fleischer explained that WFP has been requesting priority cargo for humanitarian operations because it is the only UN organization with its own shipping department that engages directly with shipping lines and vessel owners.
She said the agency has successfully negotiated waivers for surcharges imposed by shipping lines and certain ports at risk in the Middle East. These surcharges range from $2,000 to $4,000 per container, representing savings of about $1.5 million thus far.
The UN agency is also rerouting cargo to Afghanistan, for example, where 17 million people are food insecure.
Earlier this year, the Pakistan-Afghanistan war impacted food aid sourced in Pakistan, which was initially rerouted through Iran, Fleischer said.
“While we were [rerouting] to get into Bandar Abbas port of Iran, the war broke out,” she explained. “We had to put it in Jebel Ali [port] in Dubai and now we will truck it from Dubai through Saudi Arabia […]. That adds about 1,000 euros per tons and of course another three weeks.”
The WFP official further expressed concern about Sudan, where 19 million people are "acutely hungry," as well as about Somalia and South Sudan, where operations are buckling under longer lead times and higher costs.
“The financing of humanitarian operations has, since several years, not being where it should be,” she said. “We have eroded any buffer stocks. We're living from hand-to-mouth in these operations.”
With famine in areas of Sudan “there is no time”, she insisted. “Our operations and pipelines don't allow for a three-weeks-longer rerouting through the Horn of Africa.”
WFP projects that by June, some 45 million people worldwide will be facing acute hunger at a time when humanitarian operations are receiving the least funding in years.
“You’ve heard us say this before. Right now, the number is 318 million, and this will rise to 363 million,” Fleisher said. “At the same time, financing for humanitarian operations is even lower than before, limiting our ability to support people in need.”