Analysts warn that rivalries among Tigrayan political leaders in northern Ethiopia threaten to derail the process of reintegrating the Tigray region into Ethiopia's federal structure, and could rapidly escalate into a wider conflict involving Eritrea. More than two years after a ceasefire ended the war between Ethiopian government forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), in which an estimated 600,000 people died, Tigray remains highly fragile.
Amidst nearly one million of the region's estimated seven million people still internally displaced, there is growing concern about the potential humanitarian consequences of the rising political tensions. Many Tigrayans, fearing that the region could slide back into conflict, have begun stockpiling food and withdrawing money from banks.
National and international actors are urging restraint, as a further deterioration of the situation would be devastating for a population still recovering from the two-year conflict in northern Ethiopia that erupted in November 2020 and lasted until October 2022.
Serious humanitarian consequences are likely if tensions and insecurity persist, putting the lives and livelihoods of millions at risk. At least one million people across Tigray, most of them displaced, are in critical need of humanitarian aid.
According to a recent report released by the US-based Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS), rapidly escalating tensions over the leadership of Tigray's transitional authority have put the region on edge, with fears that the dispute could quickly spiral into a regional conflict.
The current crisis has been building over the past year as a result of rivalries within the TPLF. At the heart of these tensions is TPLF leader Debretsion Gebramichael's criticism of his former deputy, Getachew Reda, president of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA).
Tigray's two main leaders, Getachew and Debretsion, have been locked in a bitter political dispute that has paralyzed the region's administration and functions for months. Debretsion has blamed Getachew and the TIA for the slow pace of implementation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) signed in Pretoria in November 2022.
The African Union-brokered agreement, which ended the two-year war between the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF, called for the cessation of hostilities, the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs), disarmament, the expansion of humanitarian access, and the restoration of services in the region.
In November 2024, the first phase of the Pretoria Agreement's disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) program was launched in Tigray. DDR aims to demobilize more than 370,000 combatants in Ethiopia as a whole, including 75,000 combatants from the Tigray region in its first phase.
Yet there are other unresolved issues. Some areas have not yet been returned by the federal government, and IDPs have not returned to disputed areas in western Tigray.
The dispute between the two main leaders is rooted in differences over the implementation of the Pretoria agreement. Debretsion accuses his former TPLF deputy of not representing the interests of the region, a charge Getachew denies. The two also clashed over the convening of the TPLF party congress and the appointment of officials to the local administration.
Debretsion has called for the dissolution of the TIA and tried to undermine its authority. The TIA was established under the COHA to serve as an interim authority to guide the reintegration of Tigray into Ethiopia's federal structure.
According to ACSS, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had chosen Getachew as a senior TPLF leader with credibility among Tigrayans to head the interim body.
In an effort to defuse rising tensions, the Ethiopian prime minister announced in late March that Getachew would step down as president of the TIA and called on all Tigrayans to submit their nominations for a new interim president. However, his successor has not yet been named.
ACSS says it remains to be seen whether this move will defuse the tensions that threaten to derail Tigray's transition.
The Debretsion faction rejected Abiy's call for nominations, accusing the prime minister of violating the COHA, which states that the transitional administration is to be established through dialogue, by planning to unilaterally appoint the regional president.
The latest escalation is rooted in a dispute over control of the Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF). Debretsion, the longtime leader of the TPLF, has claimed that authority over the forces does not fall under the TIA.
Getachew, representing a younger cohort of the TPLF leadership, had responded that while the TDF was a neutral body, it was being administered by the TIA as part of its responsibility to oversee the demobilization process outlined in the COHA. Getachew had accused the TPLF faction under Debretsion of destabilizing the region and attempting a "coup d'état".
Meanwhile, civilians in Tigray are reportedly queuing for hours to withdraw cash from banks and stock up on essential goods. Across the region, there is growing anxiety and frustration over limited access to basic services, rising prices of basic commodities, a regional liquidity crisis, and critical fuel shortages.
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies warns that given Eritrea's proximity and reports that Eritrean troops remain in parts of Tigray in violation of the COHA, there are growing fears that Eritrea may intervene in the factional struggle between Tigrayan leaders.
For months, the Debretsion faction and several TDF leaders have been accused by the Ethiopian government and Getachew of working with Eritrea to spark a conflict between the two countries.
Some observers believe that the Eritrean government is collaborating with members of the Debretsion faction and Fano militias to attack the Abiy Ahmed-led government as relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea deteriorated after the signing of the Pretoria deal between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government.
The Eritrean government said it had no interest in Ethiopia's internal affairs and denied any links with the TPLF. Instead, it accused the Ethiopian government of planning to invade Eritrea to gain access to the Red Sea.
ACSS stressed that a sudden increase in troop deployments by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) in Tigray could also be seen as a provocation, leading to miscalculation and a wider regional conflict. Eritrea, meanwhile, has signaled to its citizens to prepare for a possible mobilization.
According to the Ethiopia Peace Observatory (EPO), there are about 200 TDF leaders who support the faction led by TPLF President Debretsion, and who have forcibly taken control of various transitional local administrations to install pro-Debretsion local officials.
EPO warned in a report this week that tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia are rising, although "both have significant motivations to avoid direct confrontation", but "the possibility of both sides supporting a proxy war in the region is high".
In a recent report, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said the humanitarian response has already been affected by rising political tensions in Tigray and is below target levels. OCHA said that aid agencies are considering further mitigation and preparedness measures.
According to humanitarian agencies, most displaced people in Tigray are hosted by communities whose coping capacities are close to exhaustion. As a result, a growing number of IDPs are being forced into already overcrowded collective centers, where they face health and protection risks due to a lack of basic necessities.
Eritrean refugees in Tigray are also dependent on humanitarian assistance. The neighboring Afar region, whose population has also suffered from the conflict in northern Ethiopia and where many face food insecurity and malnutrition, is also likely to be impacted by the evolving situation in Tigray, including through population movements.
While the overall humanitarian and security situation in Ethiopia has improved significantly over the past two years, millions of Ethiopians remain displaced by conflict, insecurity, and climate-related shocks such as drought and flooding. Ethiopia faces multiple drivers of instability as years of drought and conflict have left millions of Ethiopians without enough to eat.
Ethiopia is currently responding to several disease outbreaks, including cholera, measles, and malaria. Although 94 percent of cholera cases were under control by the end of 2024, recent spikes have been reported in the Gambella and Amhara regions. In 2024, the cholera outbreak resulted in more than 27,000 cases and at least 269 deaths.
In Ethiopia's Amhara region, clashes continue between government forces and the regional Fano militia, which fought on the government side during the conflict in the Tigray region. Civilians in Amhara have yet to recover from the conflict in northern Ethiopia, which has taken a toll on their lives and livelihoods. The hostilities are exacerbating the plight of civilians as the limited humanitarian response has stalled due to insecurity.
Despite significant improvements in the humanitarian and human rights situation in Tigray since the COHA, Ethiopia as a whole faced a challenging situation in 2024, with the Amhara and Oromia regions most affected by violent clashes and conflict. The humanitarian situation remains of serious concern as violence, drought and other climate-related disasters continue to cause displacement and prevent the safe return of IDPs to their homes.
Violent conflict, particularly in the Amhara and Oromia regions, led to serious human rights violations and abuses in 2024. In Tigray, the human rights situation improved significantly after the implementation of the COHA, but concerns remain about continued human rights violations by members of the Eritrean Defense Forces.
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies is an academic institution within the United States government, funded by the US Congress to study security issues related to Africa.
The Ethiopia Peace Observatory is a project launched by ACLED, a US-based non-profit organization, to improve the collection of information on conflict throughout Ethiopia.
ACLED - the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project - is a data collection, analysis and crisis mapping project. ACLED collects information on the dates, actors, locations, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world.