The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warns that millions of people across Nigeria are bracing for one of the worst lean seasons on record. Conflict, violence, insecurity, economic pressures, and unprecedented funding constraints are pushing families to the brink. This has made Nigeria one of the world’s largest hunger and malnutrition crises, with the north of the country bearing the overwhelming burden.
In an update on Friday, OCHA warned that further delays in humanitarian assistance will force millions of families to reduce meals further, sell assets, and withdraw their children from school.
Nearly one in seven people — approximately 35 million nationwide — are expected to experience acute food insecurity during this year's lean season, from June to August. This includes nearly two million people facing emergency levels of hunger.
In north-east Nigeria, including the states of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (BAY), some 5.9 million people are projected to face crisis levels of hunger (IPC Phase 3) or worse in 2026. Food insecurity has worsened, with nearly 1 million people likely to face emergency levels of hunger (IPC Phase 4). An estimated 15,000 people in Borno State are at risk of catastrophic hunger (IPC Phase 5), which is one step away from famine.
Meanwhile, more than 11.4 million people in north-west Nigeria are projected to face crisis levels of hunger (IPC Phase 3) or worse. Of those, one million people are projected to experience emergency levels of hunger (IPC Phase 4) during the lean season.
The number of children at risk due to acute malnutrition is also rising. An estimated 6.4 million children in north-west and north-east Nigeria are likely to be acutely malnourished this year. In north-east Nigeria, acute malnutrition is projected to peak from May to September. Approximately 1 million children in the BAY states are expected to experience life-threatening severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in 2026.
In an advocacy note released earlier this week, the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) stated that the risk of excess mortality from hunger, malnutrition, and disease will increase sharply between June and August. The HCT also emphasized the need for urgent, "front-loaded funding" to ramp up lifesaving assistance before the peak of the crisis.
Armed insurgency, armed banditry, displacement, flooding, and economic hardship are fueling the emergency during the lean season. The 2026 lean season is projected to be the most severe on record due to record-high humanitarian needs linked to conflict and economic pressures, as well as unprecedented funding constraints.
This follows consecutive years of worsening lean season severity. Global commodity shocks, partly due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, have contributed to spikes in food and fuel prices, reduced purchasing power, and an uptick in the risk of lower agricultural production due to rising cost of inputs.
The HCT is calling for urgent humanitarian action to address immediate lifesaving needs while the government and other development actors work to address the root causes of the hunger crisis.
The UN and its humanitarian partners are jointly appealing for urgent funding to scale up lifesaving assistance. As of today, the already hyper-prioritized $516 million Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) is just over 40 percent funded, with $215 million received.
The reduced number of people targeted for support in the 2026 HNRP, compared to the 2025 plan, does not reflect a reduction in needs. Rather, it reflects a highly prioritized focus on severe to extreme, lifesaving needs amid dwindling funds.
According to OCHA, resources from the Nigeria Humanitarian Fund have jump-started the response, but more support is needed to address immediate, life-saving humanitarian needs.
Despite severe funding constraints, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) resumed food assistance in Borno and Yobe states in April, after pausing distributions in March. In April, WFP provided emergency food assistance to over 420,000 people, offering a critical lifeline to vulnerable communities amid worsening hunger conditions.
However, Nigeria’s humanitarian crisis extends beyond the north-east to the north-central states of Benue, Nasarawa, Niger, and Plateau, as well as the north-west states of Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Kaduna. Over 3.6 million people are internally displaced across the north-east, north-west, and north-central states due to the protracted conflict in the region.
The hunger situation is worsening due to ongoing conflict and violence in regions with high agricultural production, economic shocks, and organized criminal activities that displace people, further eroding resilience and exacerbating vulnerabilities. Renewed violence has devastated fragile rural communities, forcing families to flee and destroying food reserves.
In many conflict-affected areas, particularly in the north-east and north-west, farmers are unable to safely access farmland due to land disputes, abductions, killings, extortion, and violence by non-state armed groups (NSAGs). This forces them to abandon production, leaving households without crops, income, or reserves as the lean season begins.
Nigeria’s worsening hunger crisis is unfolding amid escalating insecurity and growing concerns over the protection of civilians.
Civilian casualties from government airstrikes in Nigeria and the wider Lake Chad Basin are escalating
Airstrikes conducted as part of the government's counterterrorism and anti-banditry operations continue to pose a grave risk to civilians in Nigeria and the wider Lake Chad Basin. On May 10, at least 100 civilians — including a significant number of women and girls — were reportedly killed in a Nigerian military airstrike on the Tumfa market in the Zurmi district of north-west Zamfara state.
According to witnesses, military aircraft were seen circling the area around midday before returning hours later and striking the busy market. Amnesty International’s office in Nigeria described the scene as “chaotic,” with “screams, blood, and bodies all over the ground.”
Following the attack, Amnesty International warned that “this pattern of human rights violations is increasingly becoming the norm, with villagers at the receiving end of atrocities by both armed groups, bandits and the military.”
According to human rights monitors, air operations have become a key part of the Nigerian government's counterterrorism and anti-banditry efforts against non-state armed groups, including Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), as well as armed bandit groups in the north-west.
These operations have intensified in response to the growing insecurity in the Lake Chad Basin, where armed groups persistently attack civilians and security forces. However, they have repeatedly resulted in civilian casualties, especially when strikes hit markets and other densely populated areas.
For example, in April, the Nigerian Air Force carried out an airstrike on a crowded market in Jilli village, located near the border between Yobe and Borno states. Local residents and human rights monitors reported that at least 200 civilians were killed.
The risks to civilians are further compounded by cross-border military operations in the wider Lake Chad Basin, which encompasses Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. Regional forces are conducting campaigns against Boko Haram and affiliated armed groups in these countries.
In early May, Chadian fighter jets reportedly bombed islands on the Nigerian side of Lake Chad that were believed to be under Boko Haram control. According to local fishermen who escaped the attacks, at least 40 fishermen went missing and are feared to have drowned during the airstrikes.
In response to the attacks in May, Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said he was shocked by the Nigerian army's airstrike on the market in Zamfara State. He also expressed alarm over reports that dozens of fishermen were killed in Chadian military airstrikes in north-west Nigeria.
“It is crucial that both Nigerian and Chadian authorities conduct prompt, thorough, independent and impartial investigations into these disturbing incidents and ensure that those responsible for any violations are held to account, in accordance with international standards,” he said.
The UN human rights chief called on both militaries to take all feasible precautions to avoid harm to civilians.
“Their military operations, including against Boko Haram and the so-called ‘Islamic State West Africa Province’ must be conducted in full compliance with international humanitarian law and international human rights law. Civilians and civilian objects must never be the target of attack,” he added.