The humanitarian crisis in Somalia has faded from the news this year, after a historic four-year drought ended in 2023 and famine was averted, bringing relief to millions of Somalis. But UN officials and humanitarian agencies warn that needs in the country remain critically high as a lack of humanitarian funding delays recovery from the drought.
Somalia continues to face a severe humanitarian crisis, with 6.9 million Somalis in need of humanitarian assistance amid decades of conflict and insecurity, political tensions and clan violence. The needs are exacerbated by a cycle of escalating climate shocks, mainly droughts and floods, disease outbreaks, and economic disruption.
The 2020-2023 drought, which ended in the second quarter of last year, was one of the worst on record. The severe flooding caused by the October-December Deyr rainy season, exacerbated by El Niño, was the worst in decades.
According to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), an estimated 3 to 4 million people are still in need of food assistance, with needs expected to peak between June and August, largely due to flood-related crop losses during the 2024 Gu rainy season.
Wrapping up a three-day mission to Somalia, a senior UN official stressed Thursday that there is no time to rest. His mission included a visit to Baidoa in the southwestern region of Somalia, one of the areas most affected by the drought in 2022.
“During my time in Baidoa, I met families who had to leave their homes due to conflict and extreme climate shocks. Families are stuck in a cycle of climate disasters, displacement, and a lack of nutritious food and education,” said Carl Skau, Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer of the World Food Programme (WFP).
“The Somali people show incredible resilience every day. It is critical now that the government, the UN, and its partners target the most vulnerable and ensure that the right assistance reaches them on time.”
Somalia's longest drought in modern history, from 2020 to 2023, was followed by severe flooding in November 2023. The floods - estimated to be the worst in decades - affected two million people and displaced 750,000 from their homes.
An unprecedented humanitarian scale-up by WFP and other humanitarian agencies in 2022 and 2023 helped avert famine in Somalia. While these efforts and increased rainfall this year have improved food security since the peak of the drought, when 6.6 million people were at risk of hunger, nearly 3.4 million people are still facing crisis levels of hunger.
"I spoke with staff who were at the worst-affected sites during the peak of the emergency. What we have achieved with the Government and partners is commendable, but we cannot stop," said Skau.
“WFP is committed to delivering assistance to the most vulnerable. Reaching all those in need and the safety of our staff is of the utmost importance. Humanitarian access must be preserved at all costs.”
UN agencies in the country say their efforts to reach those affected are limited, mainly due to lack of funding and access due to conflict in some areas.
While rains in 2023 and 2024 alleviated drought conditions in Somalia, communities across the country are still recovering from its impact. In addition, heavy rains and associated flooding have displaced households, destroyed critical infrastructure, contributed to the loss of livelihoods, and increased the spread of disease.
Heavy rains and subsequent flash floods across Somalia during the country's April-June Gu rainy season caused casualties, displaced more than 80,000 people, and adversely affected some 268,000 people.
Ongoing conflict, escalating clan violence and recurrent climatic shocks in Somalia have led to widespread displacement. An estimated 3.8 million people remain displaced within the country. In the first six months of 2024, some 236,000 people were newly displaced, mainly due to flooding and insecurity, including some 20,000 internal displacements in June.
This year's rains have been milder than last year's, reducing the risk of flooding. However, communities are still facing the lingering effects of past shocks, and forecasts predict continued dry conditions with below-average rainfall for the coming season.
"Somalia is at a turning point. We need to provide nutritious food to families, address the root causes of hunger, and help communities adapt to continuous cycles of climate shocks," added Skau.
Low humanitarian funding has delayed recovery from the recent El Niño and the worst drought in decades, severely impacting food security and livelihoods.
“Resources are limited, but now is the time to invest in resilience and climate adaptation to prepare for and mitigate the impact of shocks. WFP is stepping up its efforts to foster more resilient communities,” the WFP official said.
Due to severe underfunding and pressure from donor countries, aid agencies are implementing a more rigorously targeted response this year, focusing on assisting women, men and children in "extreme" and "catastrophic" need, which means the severe needs of millions of others will remain unmet.
Although the number of people in need has decreased from 8.25 million last year, the percentage of people targeted has also decreased from 92 percent in 2023 to 75 percent in 2024 due to anticipated underfunding.
Humanitarian operations in Somalia remain severely underfunded. As of August, the 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) for Somalia was only 32 percent met. When funding is scarce, aid agencies must prioritize the most vulnerable in areas of greatest need.
Meanwhile, the security situation in Somalia remains highly volatile and difficult to predict. The non-state armed group (NSAG) al-Shabaab remains the main security threat, targeting government security forces, government employees, and personnel and facilities of the African Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).
Al-Shabaab has been fighting to overthrow the Somali central government in Mogadishu for nearly two decades.
ATMIS has been drawn down in line with the planned transition of responsibilities to Somali security forces. Five thousand ATMIS troops have left Somalia since June 2023, with further reductions planned in the coming weeks.
According to a recent Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) situation update, in Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle, Somali security forces have intensified operations against the non-state armed group in recent months, while al-Shabaab has continued to engage with security forces to protect its strongholds. In Lower Shabelle, al-Shabaab attacks have targeted security forces at high levels.
Inter-clan fighting continues to affect security in several regions. Recent fighting in Mudug and Galgaduud regions of Galmudug State, particularly in areas bordering Puntland, has left thousands of people displaced.
According to ACLED, the Islamic State in Somalia (IS) has been increasingly active in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland since May. The group reportedly has between 100 and 400 fighters, most of whom operate in the northeastern state of Puntland.
Somalia is also plagued by disease. A cholera outbreak is spreading in several areas, with more than 18,000 cases reported in 2023. Since the beginning of 2024, 14,389 new cholera cases with 122 deaths have been recorded, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) as of June 30, 2024.
The Gu rains are expected to trigger outbreaks in areas where cholera has not been detected for several years, as communities in affected areas continue to experience inadequate access to safe water and poor sanitation amid the flooding.
Further information
Full text: WFP Deputy Head visits communities on the frontlines of climate extremes in Somalia, WFP, press release, published August 1, 2024
https://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-deputy-head-visits-communities-frontlines-climate-extremes-somalia
Full text: Situation Update - July 2024: The looming threat: A resurgence of Islamic State and inter-clan fighting in Somalia, Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), report, published July 31, 2024
https://acleddata.com/2024/07/31/the-looming-threat-a-resurgence-of-islamic-state-and-inter-clan-fighting-in-somalia-july-2024