Millions of Somalis face heightened food insecurity as below-average rainfall between October and December 2024, linked to the La Niña weather phenomenon, threatens to reverse recent gains in food security. United Nations agencies warn that without immediate funding for humanitarian interventions, Somalia - a country teetering on the brink of famine in late 2022 - could plunge back into a severe hunger crisis.
The La Niña phenomenon is a climate pattern that typically follows El Niño. La Niña conditions are expected to prevail between August 2024 and February 2025, significantly affecting rainfall distribution and temperatures. The shift in climate is expected to have a major impact on several crisis hotspots around the world, including Somalia.
Friday's alert from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the UN World Food Programme (WFP) follows the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis.
The IPC analysis shows that 3.6 million people - 19 percent of the population - are currently experiencing crisis levels of hunger (IPC3 or worse) in Somalia. This number is projected to rise to 4.4 million between October and December this year, coinciding with forecasts of below-average Deyr rains, with nearly 1 million people estimated to be in emergency levels.
In addition, 1.6 million children under the age of five are at risk of acute malnutrition between now and July 2025, with 403,000 likely to suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM).
“We are at a pivotal moment and must sound the alarm. Without swift action, Somalia risks slipping back into the hunger crisis that nearly led to famine in recent years,” said Elkhidir Daloum, WFP’s Country Director in Somalia, in a statement.
“Despite some progress in food security, many families are still at risk of hunger as food prices surge and crop yields dwindle. Our focus must be on providing immediate assistance while fostering long-term resilience.”
The IPC's findings are consistent with global weather forecasts that predict an 80 percent probability of La Niña conditions, which could lead to drought in Somalia. Forecasts indicate a below-normal Deyr rainy season and above-normal temperatures, which could exacerbate soil moisture loss, reduce crop and livestock productivity, and increase food insecurity in vulnerable communities.
FAO Somalia Country Representative, Etienne Peterschmitt, underscored the urgency of early action in light of the La Niña forecast and the potential for drought.
“La Niña’s impact on Somalia’s agrifood systems could be devastating, with degraded soil and water resources, disrupted planting seasons, and reduced crop yields. The loss of livestock will further threaten rural livelihoods, pushing millions deeper into hunger and poverty,” he said.
“Anticipatory action is essential to mitigate these impacts and prevent a worsening food security crisis.”
UNICEF Representative Wafaa Saeed highlighted the persistent and widespread acute malnutrition among children.
“We are likely to see water sources depleting and malnutrition among children rising,” Saeed said.
“While the number of acutely malnourished children has reduced and more people had access to safe water, these gains are fragile, and risk being eroded. We need to sustain provision of life-saving assistance while simultaneously scaling up investments in resilience so that communities can respond and recover positively to recurrent shocks.”
FAO, OCHA, UNICEF and WFP express grave concern over the bleak food security outlook for the coming months.
Amid funding shortfalls, unfavorable rainfall forecasts, ongoing security challenges, and soaring food prices, the UN agencies are urgently appealing for additional funding to scale up humanitarian and resilience programs to address the expected drought in Somalia. As of September 29, the 2024 Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) is only 38 percent funded.
The humanitarian crisis in Somalia has faded from the news this year after a historic four-year drought ended in 2023, and famine was averted, bringing relief to millions of Somalis. However, the country, plagued by conflict, displacement, food insecurity and climatic shocks, continues to face serious humanitarian and security challenges.
The 2020-2023 drought, which ended in the second quarter of last year, was one of the worst on record. The severe flooding caused by the October-December Deyr rainy season, exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon, was the worst in decades.
River and flash floods caused damage, displacement, crop losses and disrupted market access in some southern parts of Somalia, while erratic rainfall during the early end of the Gu rainy season affected agropastoral areas.
With 6.9 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in Somalia in 2024, 3.6 million people face crisis or worse levels of hunger between July and September. This includes 724,000 people in emergency levels of acute food insecurity, on the brink of famine.
4.5 million Somalis have been forced from their homes, more than 80 percent of whom are women and children. An estimated 3.8 million people remain internally displaced within the country.
Conflict and military operations have caused significant displacement and hampered humanitarian access. While inter-clan fighting causes thousands to flee their homes each year, the non-state armed group Al-Shabab remains the main security threat, targeting civilians and government forces. Al-Shabab has been fighting to overthrow the central Somali government in Mogadishu for nearly two decades.
Further information
Full text: Hunger set to worsen in Somalia as La Nina drought looms, WFP, UNICEF, FAO, joint press release, published September 27, 2024
https://www.wfp.org/news/hunger-set-worsen-somalia-la-nina-drought-looms