The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) says it is deeply concerned by the current political tensions and deteriorating security situation in the country, including the aerial bombardment of the town of Nasir in Upper Nile State, resulting in civilian casualties. Nicholas Haysom, the head of UNMISS, has warned that the country is on the brink of a return to civil war.
On Wednesday, government airstrikes by the South Sudan People's Defense Forces (SSPDF) hit civilian areas in Nasir, including the hospital, adding to the number of men, women and children injured or killed in recent days.
The European Union's humanitarian office (ECHO) warned in an update on Thursday that the airstrikes came amid intensified fighting that has displaced more than 84,000 people, more than 10,000 of whom have crossed into Ethiopia, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR). The escalation is also exacerbating severe food insecurity and acute malnutrition.
Nicholas Haysom, who is also the UN Special Envoy for South Sudan, urges all parties to respect the ceasefire and immediately resolve the Nasir tensions through dialogue rather than further military confrontation. He called on both sides to immediately return to consensus-based decision-making and intensive dialogue to address their differences and rebuild trust.
Following the March 4 takeover of Nasir barracks in Upper Nile by the White Army, an opposition-linked militia, tensions have been extremely high across the country. Vice President Riek Machar accused the army, under President Salva Kiir, of launching attacks on his forces in nearby Ulang County on February 25, as well as on his loyalists in two other parts of the west.
The White Army militia, linked to Machar's forces, overran the army base in Nasir on March 4, killing soldiers and taking control of the town. The incident is part of a larger pattern of militia activity across the country, fueling fears of a renewed civil war.
Haysom stressed the need for the parties to de-escalate political tensions now, before it is too late.
"A number of senior SPLA/IO military and civilian officials have been arrested in Juba, while some have gone into hiding or fled the country. Yesterday, the Government’s Spokesperson confirmed the deployment of foreign forces in South Sudan," Haysom told an African Union Peace and Security Council meeting on South Sudan on Tuesday.
“Meanwhile, airstrikes on Nasir have inflicted civilian casualties. With the proliferation of mis/disinformation in the public domain, hate speech is now rampant, raising concerns that the conflict could assume an ethnic dimension.”
He said the peace process and its mechanisms remain the key to restoring peace and are on the verge of collapse.
“There is only one path out of this cycle of conflict, and that is through the Revitalized Agreement. The overriding imperative now is to direct all our efforts to prevent a relapse into war, support the full implementation of the agreement, and progress the transition towards the country’s first democratic elections,” Haysom added.
“This region cannot afford another conflict.”
Speaking at the same meeting, Ismail Wais, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Special Envoy for South Sudan, warned that "South Sudan is on the cusp of a full-scale conflict."
“The peace that has been kept and sustained for the past seven years is now in grave and imminent danger of collapse. Immediate concerted diplomatic intervention is imperative to avert a full-scale war that will otherwise engulf the whole region and beyond,” Wais said.
He highlighted a number of factors that have contributed to the deteriorating situation, including clashes between the SSPDF and the White Army in Nasir, air strikes in the same location, rising tensions over the deployment of Ugandan troops in South Sudan, and a public spat between the parties.
“If a conflict breaks out in South Sudan now, it will be like no other. The destruction and suffering will be unprecedented. Now is the right time to act.”
The United Nations has reported that the situation in South Sudan has deteriorated significantly since early March. According to UN reports, tensions have increased due to internal conflict, particularly between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and those aligned with Vice President Riek Machar.
The world body has also highlighted the fragile nature of the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement, which ended South Sudan's civil war. The 2013-2018 civil war in South Sudan claimed the lives of approximately 400,000 people.
On March 7, a UN helicopter evacuating South Sudanese troops was attacked, killing one UN crew member and seriously injuring two others, highlighting the ongoing violence and risks to UN personnel operating in South Sudan. Several South Sudanese soldiers, including a senior general, were killed in the incident
The Ugandan military has deployed its special forces to help the South Sudanese government secure the capital, Juba, and deal with growing instability. As the deployment of foreign troops is usually a sign that a situation has reached a critical point, the move underscores the gravity of the situation, despite President Kiir's reassurances to his citizens that there will be no return to war.
Political tensions between Kiir and Machar are running high, with arrests of several of Machar's top allies from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO), threatening the fragile unity government formed under the 2018 peace agreement.
The US Department of State (DoS) has issued a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" travel advisory for South Sudan, the highest possible warning. This advisory specifically states that there is a "greater risk of life-threatening danger." The United States has advised Americans not to travel to South Sudan due to the presence of armed conflict and has ordered non-essential personnel to leave the country.
In a recent report, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) said, "Tensions are running dangerously high in South Sudan.” The non-governmental organization (NGO) expressed concern about the possibility of a renewed civil war. The ICG also warned that fighting in Upper Nile could spill over into other regions, including Sudan.
“Though South Sudan could quickly slip back into full-scale conflict and ethnic bloodletting, such horror may still be averted if regional leaders intervene with high-level diplomacy before the situation spins further out of control,” the ICG said.
The UN has expressed deep concern about the escalating violence, which is affecting the population and disrupting humanitarian operations. Insecurity is also hampering the response to the ongoing cholera outbreak, which has ravaged this part of the country with more than 40,000 cases and 694 deaths.
Insecurity has led to the relocation of at least 23 humanitarian workers and the closure of the cholera treatment unit in Nasir, exacerbating the ongoing outbreak.
On Tuesday, the Humanitarian Coordinator in South Sudan, Anita Kiki Gbeho, called on all parties involved in the fighting in Nasir, Ulang and Baliet counties to respect and protect the population, humanitarian workers and critical infrastructure.
"The violence is putting already vulnerable communities at greater risk and forcing the suspension of life-saving services," she said.
"I urge all actors to allow humanitarians to safely reach those in need, especially women, children, and the elderly."
The situation in Nasir follows other incidents across South Sudan since January, including in the regions of Greater Equatoria and Greater Bahr el Ghazal, where violence has affected populations and led to displacement.
"The humanitarian community is doing all it can, but insecurity and global funding cuts are impacting our ability to deliver critical assistance," Gbeho added.
"The little we have must be protected so that urgent support for people most in need can be provided. Currently, 5.4 million people, over half of them children, require life-saving assistance and protection before the flood season starts."
In 2025, an estimated 9.3 million people - 69 percent of South Sudan's total population of 13.4 million - are in need of humanitarian assistance. South Sudan's protracted humanitarian crisis is exacerbated by intercommunal conflict, the extreme effects of climate change, disease outbreaks, economic crisis, and the impact of the ongoing conflict in neighboring Sudan.
More than 1.08 million people have crossed into South Sudan since the outbreak of war in Sudan in April 2023, and it is estimated that hundreds of thousands more will arrive in 2025.
South Sudan is facing a major hunger crisis. In March 2024, an estimated 6.1 million people are classified as IPC Phase 3 or higher (Crisis or worse). Of this total, 1.71 million people face critical levels of acute food insecurity - classified as IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) - and an additional 31,000 people face catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity or IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe).
In the period of April to July 2025, the food security situation is expected to deteriorate with the arrival of the lean season. It is likely that an estimated 7.69 million people will be in Phase 3 or worse. This will include 2.53 million people likely to be in Phase 4 and 63,000 people likely to be in Phase 5.
Meanwhile, nearly 2.1 million children under the age of five are at risk of malnutrition, up from 1.65 million. The total includes 650,000 children suffering from severe acute malnutrition (SAM), who require urgent medical attention.
South Sudan is also one of the countries badly affected by climate change. Dry spell and flooding contribute to people’s food insecurity situation. Consecutive years of record flooding have led to widespread displacement, loss of farmland and destruction of livelihoods.