El Niño has become firmly established and will intensify in the coming months, significantly impacting rainfall and temperature patterns, as well as increasing the risk of floods, droughts, and extreme heat, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed on Thursday. New WMO forecasts show nearly a 100 percent likelihood that the phenomenon will persist through February 2027.
Fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further in the coming months, reaching very strong intensity by the end of the year, which will have climate impacts continuing well into 2027.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
“Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. “
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said that El Niño has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.
“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” she said.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response.”
One of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth
El Niño and La Niña are two of the most powerful natural influences on the global climate system. These phenomena are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth that occurs naturally.
A very strong El Niño event heightens the potential for significant changes in rainfall, temperatures, and atmospheric circulation across many regions of the world.
However, the strength of an El Niño event alone does not determine the severity of its impacts in any given country or region. The effects vary by location and season and can be modified by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
From September to November of 2026, WMO models indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across nearly all land areas.
El Niño is characterized by warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months.
El Niño generally begins developing between March and June and reaches peak intensity between November and February. Its impact on global temperatures can extend beyond the period of peak ocean warming, becoming most pronounced in the year following its development.
Because El Niño can reshape weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometers away from the tropical Pacific, reliable forecasts provide valuable time for governments, humanitarian organizations, businesses, and communities to prepare.
Climate change can amplify El Niño
Although El Niño events are a natural climate phenomenon not caused by climate change, a warmer ocean and atmosphere provide more energy and moisture for extreme weather events, such as heat waves and heavy rainfall, thereby amplifying their impact.
Earlier this year, the WMO issued one of its most urgent warnings to date, stating that the Earth’s climate system is more imbalanced now than at any other time in modern history. The WMO's State of the Global Climate 2025 report, released in March, paints a stark picture of a planet accumulating heat at an unprecedented rate due to record levels of greenhouse gases, which leads to increasingly severe consequences.
Record-high concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to break heat records on land and sea, with long-lasting consequences for humanity. The Earth’s climate is more imbalanced now than at any other time in recorded history. Between 2015 and 2025, the world experienced the 11 hottest years on record.
“The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,” said UN Secretary-General Guterres on Thursday.
El Niño threatens to push 49 million people into acute hunger.
Thursday’s WMO warning comes at a time when humanitarian needs continue to rise, global aid budgets face mounting pressure, and climate change exacerbates the situation worldwide, particularly in regions with fragile food systems and recurring humanitarian crises.
In August, the World Food Programme (WFP) warned in an analysis that El Niño's intensification is set to significantly worsen food insecurity in some of the world's most vulnerable countries into 2027. The UN agency stated that the impacts of El Niño are already affecting those most vulnerable to hunger.
The 2015–2016 El Niño phenomenon impacted the food security of approximately 60 to 100 million people. WFP's preliminary analysis suggests that the 2026–2027 El Niño could push an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.
In countries likely to be most affected, the total number of people experiencing acute food insecurity—defined as being unable to meet daily food needs—would rise from approximately 225 million to 274 million, an increase of around 22 percent.
The largest impacts are expected in parts of Central America and Southern Africa, with significant effects also anticipated in Eastern Africa and South and Southeast Asia.
Latin America and the Caribbean could experience one of the sharpest rises in food insecurity, affecting more than 16 million people. Central America is particularly vulnerable, with a projected increase of 83.1 percent — the largest increase of all the analyzed regions.
In Asia and the Pacific, several vulnerable countries could see significant impacts, with an estimated 8.2 million more people facing acute food insecurity.
Eastern and Southern Africa face substantial risks, especially in regions where the upcoming rainy season is crucial for food production. There, more than 18 million people could experience deteriorating food security.
El Niño threatens more than two-thirds of children in Eastern and Southern Africa
On Tuesday, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) warned that over 162 million children, more than two-thirds of all children in Eastern and Southern Africa, live in areas exposed to the impact of a strengthening El Niño. Intensifying drought, extreme heat, and flooding endanger children's nutrition, health, access to clean water and sanitation, education, and safety.
UNICEF assessments indicate urgent and overlapping risks, particularly in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.