The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that Somalia is facing converging crises, including famine risk, conflict, insecurity, political tensions, El Niño-driven flooding, and drought. However, funding to address these threats remains critically low, even as humanitarian needs continue to escalate across the East African country.
In an update released Wednesday, OCHA highlighted that the security situation in South West State has deteriorated significantly since late September, particularly in Baidoa and Buur Hakaba districts. The instability has uprooted many civilians who have fled toward Baidoa town or the capital city of Mogadishu. This displacement is compounded by a disruption of humanitarian operations in areas where needs are already severe.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) identified a risk of famine in the town of Buur Hakaba earlier this year, which was averted through a concerted and timely humanitarian response. However, the latest IPC analysis published in September warns that famine now threatens displaced communities in Baidoa.
According to the report, between October and December 2026, an estimated 5.4 million people will face crisis levels of hunger or worse. This includes 1.5 million people at emergency levels (IPC4) and nearly 26,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the Bay region who are likely to experience catastrophic conditions (IPC5), indicating a high risk of starvation.
The latest IPC malnutrition analysis reveals that approximately 1.92 million children under five will require treatment for acute malnutrition over the coming months, including an estimated 433,000 with severe acute malnutrition (SAM). SAM can be fatal within weeks if left untreated, as it severely weakens a child's immune system and leaves them highly vulnerable to life-threatening complications.
Somalia remains at the forefront of the global climate crisis, where El Niño is exacerbating existing risks as the peak of the Deyr rainy season approaches. Simultaneously, parts of northern Somalia continue to suffer from drought conditions. Heavy rains have already triggered flash floods in several regions, affecting thousands and damaging critical infrastructure such as shelters, latrines, and water points.
To mitigate these impacts, humanitarian organizations have prepositioned emergency supplies and boats in high-risk areas while distributing cash assistance to affected families.
However, the scale of the crisis is immense; it is estimated that at least 175,000 people have already been impacted by El Niño-linked heavy rains and flash floods across multiple regions. Between October and December, an additional 3.4 million people are projected to face flood risks, with Hiraan, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba being the most exposed areas.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Danish Refugee Council estimate that more than 870,000 people may be displaced from their homes due to flooding in the coming months, a figure that accounts for approximately 92 percent of all projected displacement this season. To date in 2026, over 790,000 Somalis have already been forced to flee their homes due to drought or conflict.
As of October 2026, an estimated 4.3 million Somalis remain displaced. While approximately 3.3 million are internally displaced, more than 950,000 people from Somalia have sought refuge in neighboring countries, primarily Kenya and Ethiopia, largely due to climatic shocks and armed conflict. More than 80 percent of the displaced are women and children.
Despite the escalating needs on the ground, funding remains a critical barrier. While the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) recently allocated US$16 million for Somalia as part of an emergency response to several underfunded crises, the overall humanitarian response plan for this year is only 36 percent funded to date.