Nearly 19.2 million people in Afghanistan are projected to experience acute food insecurity during the lean season (November 2026 to April 2027), according to a warning issued on Thursday by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the UN World Food Programme (WFP), who cited the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis. This is an increase from 15.9 million people in September–October 2026.
Of those who will be acutely food insecure, an estimated five million will face emergency levels of hunger (IPC Phase 4)—double the number projected for April–September 2026. The UN agencies warn that immediate food assistance and urgent emergency agricultural support are needed to prevent deaths and total collapse of livelihoods.
"Hunger and malnutrition are tightening their grip on Afghanistan's families, pushing more people towards the brink just as resources to respond are running short,” said John Aylieff, WFP Country Director in Afghanistan
“This crisis is increasingly being defined by the gap between growing needs and shrinking funding.”
Aylieff added that, although there is still a window to act, "it is closing fast."
“With urgent support, families can get through the winter with dignity. Without it, many will face impossible choices no parent should have to make,” he said.
Acute malnutrition expected to soar in 2027
Acute malnutrition is also worsening significantly across Afghanistan. Over 4 million children are expected to require treatment in 2027, which is the highest number recorded in the past five years. Additionally, nearly 1.3 million pregnant or breastfeeding women are expected to suffer from malnutrition between January and December 2027.
The latest IPC analysis of acute malnutrition, released earlier this week, shows that the number of provinces facing critical levels of malnutrition increased from 7 in 2025 to 10 in 2026. It is projected to reach 14 in 2027, which is more than one-third of Afghanistan’s provinces.
According to the analysis, the most severe form of acute malnutrition is rising fastest. An estimated 1.09 million children are projected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition in 2027, which is a 16 percent increase from 2026. Nearly 3 million children are also expected to experience moderate acute malnutrition.
In a statement on Tuesday, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and Action Against Hunger stressed that these figures represent children at greater risk of illness, developmental delays, and death if treatment is unavailable. Despite increasing case numbers, prevention and treatment services are lagging well behind, leaving women and children particularly vulnerable.
According to the IPC, acute malnutrition in Afghanistan is driven by poor diets among children, widespread food insecurity, high childhood morbidity, and poor water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) conditions that increase exposure to illness. It is also driven by significant malnutrition among pregnant and breastfeeding women and adolescent girls.
Humanitarian organizations focused on nutrition in Afghanistan warn that, without urgent and sustained funding, acute malnutrition will likely deteriorate further. They emphasize the need for immediate investment to maintain life-saving food, nutrition, and health services, as well as safe water, sanitation, and livelihood support, while addressing the underlying causes of malnutrition.
“We know what works, and we know that early action saves lives,” said Tajudeen Oyewal, UNICEF Afghanistan Representative, on Tuesday.
“What is needed now is sustained, predictable investment to keep nutrition, health and WASH services within reach of the children and families who need them most. “
Forced returns, economic pressures, and funding shortfalls exacerbate the crisis
The hunger and malnutrition crises in Afghanistan are driven by several shocks affecting Afghan families and the humanitarian response. More than 1.2 million Afghans have been forced to return from Iran and Pakistan this year, putting additional strain on communities that are already overwhelmed.
Border closures and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and other critical trade routes are causing prices for basic goods to rise. At the same time, dramatic funding shortfalls are limiting humanitarian assistance just as needs are growing. These issues are all converging to drive hunger and malnutrition higher, particularly as winter approaches.
In 2026, favorable rainfall supported crop production and pasture recovery, benefiting many farming households. The anticipated El Niño season could bring further above-average rainfall, which would help replenish water sources, restore pasture, and support winter and spring crops.
However, better growing conditions do not automatically translate into improved food security. High fertilizer and agricultural input costs, combined with low crop prices, may limit farmers’ ability to invest in the next planting season. Poorer farmers may be forced to plant fewer crops or use fewer resources, which could jeopardize production in the future.
For many families, the difficulty lies not only in food availability, but also in affordability. Persistent unemployment and limited incomes prevent households that rely on markets to meet their food needs from consistently affording a nutritious diet, even when harvests improve and more food is available.
“Past experience shows that timely, targeted food and emergency agricultural assistance can bring acute food insecurity down,“ said Richard Trenchard, FAO Representative in Afghanistan, on Tuesday.
“Helping families grow or afford nutritious food for their children can also help prevent malnutrition long before children need treatment. “
FAO and WFP are calling for urgent funding to scale up food assistance, emergency agricultural support, and malnutrition prevention and treatment before winter restricts access and farmers miss critical planting windows.
“Afghanistan cannot afford another year of worsening hunger and malnutrition,” they said on Thursday.
Further information
Full text: Afghanistan: IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Malnutrition Snapshot, August 2026–September 2027, IPC, published October 16, 2026
https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_Afghanistan_AFI_AMN_Sep2026_Sep2027_Snapshot.pdf