With nearly 1.2 million people in Somalia already affected by heavy rains and flooding and more expected, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has released US$25 million on Thursday to help people in the country brace against the impact of these disasters. OCHA reported Wednesday that torrential rains and floods have displaced some 335,000 men, women and children from their homes.
Somalia, which has been emerging from a historic multi-year drought, is one of many countries facing a heightened risk of flooding, drought, and extreme heat in the coming months stimulated by the El Niño phenomenon.
Over the past week, many areas of the Bay and Bakool regions received more rainfall in seven days than that expected amount for the complete three-months rainy season, according to the European Union’s humanitarian office (ECHO). In an alert issued Thursday, ECHO said heavy rains over the Juba River catchment, have led to a rise in water levels causing floods downstream. Water levels have also been on a steady rise along the Shabelle River.
In its situation report released today, OCHA said at least 28 people, including eight children, have died as a direct consequence of the extreme weather conditions. The situation is particularly serious in South West State, where nearly half a million people have been impacted, roads are flooded and shelters for scores of internally displaced people have been destroyed. Over 310,000 people are temporarily affected in Jubaland, 201,000 in Puntland and 145,800 in Galmudug.
The international humanitarian organization Islamic Relief reported today that hundreds of thousands of those affected are living in aid camps, where they previously fled to escape the horrific drought that has ravaged Somalia over the last three years.
“Now the floods have destroyed many shelters, leaving vulnerable families exposed to the harsh wind and ongoing rain. Roads have also been cut off, leaving people without access to adequate food,” the non-governmental organization (NGO) said.
Islamic Relief noted its offices in southwest Somalia have also been flooded, and the floods have cut off many roads, limiting the ability of aid agencies to respond.
“It feels like the whole country is flooding. People have suffered so much from drought and now they are suffering from flooding. This quick shift demonstrates the increasing volatility of our climate and how climate-related crises affect the poorest people most of all,” said Aliow Mohamed, Islamic Relief’s country director in Somalia.
“In the camps where we work, people have lost their homes and are exposed to the wind and rain. Many don’t have food either so giving these people sustenance and shelter is going to be vital in the days ahead as this flooding continues. Latrines in the camps have also been destroyed and there is standing stagnant water, creating major concerns about the spread of malaria and water-borne diseases.”
Humanitarian officials warn that more torrential rain is expected in the coming days, which is likely to damage more roads and inundate airstrips, having a negative impact on their ability to deliver assistance by air, especially in the affected areas of southern Somalia.
The United Nations and its humanitarian partners estimate that 1.6 million people could be affected by flooding in the current Deyr (October to December) rainy season, with 1.5 million hectares of farmland potentially being destroyed. Experts have projected a flood event of a magnitude statistically likely only once in 100 years, with significant anticipated humanitarian impacts.
Increased rainfall is forecast due to a concurrence of El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon. For the remainder of the rainfall season, a strong El Niño phenomenon is expected to generate above-average rainfalls, triggering severe riverine and flash floods in southern and central Somalia.
The ongoing El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures both on land and in the ocean, according to a Wednesday update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically last nine to 12 months. The phenomenon is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. But the WMO warns it takes place in the context of a climate being changed by human activities.
“Extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts. That is why WMO is committed to the Early Warnings For All initiative to save lives and minimize economic losses,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas in a statement Wednesday.
OCHA said early warning and early action can save lives and livelihoods, but large-scale displacement, increased humanitarian needs and further destruction of property remain likely. While all possible preparatory measures were being pursued, flooding of this magnitude could only be mitigated and not prevented.
“Extreme weather linked to the ongoing El Niño risks further driving up humanitarian needs in already-vulnerable communities in Somalia and many other places,” said Martin Griffiths, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator.
"We know what the risks are, and we need to get ahead of these looming crises."
The global humanitarian system nowadays regularly incorporates extreme weather warnings, including seasonal forecasting, to inform anticipatory and early action to get ahead of humanitarian crises.
The newly-released funds – US$10 million from the Central Emergency Fund (CERF) and US$15 million from the Somalia Humanitarian Fund – will support efforts to prevent loss of life, stem disease outbreaks and address food insecurity. The CERF funds will help UN agencies and partners assist more than 280,000 people during the initial phase of the crisis, while the Somalia Humanitarian Fund resources will support more than 420,000 people.
After a historic drought that ended in 2023, humanitarian needs in Somalia remain high due to persistent climatic and environmental shocks, conflict, displacement, widespread poverty, and disease outbreaks. In recent months, the drought has given way to rainfall and flash floods. Although the rains have brought some relief, it will be years before the historic drought is overcome.
According to the latest IPC analysis, some 3.7 million people - 22 percent of Somalia’s population - are food insecure (crisis level or worse), including 1.5 million children under the age of 5 who are likely to face acute malnutrition through July 2024, with 330,000 children facing severe malnutrition. The number of food-insecure people is likely to rise to 4.3 million, including more than 1 million under IPC phase 4 (emergency) and 3.3 million under phase 3 (crisis).
An estimated 3.8 million Somalis are internally displaced, and about 700,000 people have fled to neighboring countries. Displaced people have the most severe needs, given that they are often unable to meet their basic needs and face significant protection concerns. In the first nine months of 2023, conflict, severe drought and devastating floods have forced more than 1.5 million people in Somalia to flee their homes – a record rate of displacement for the country.
While humanitarian assistance reached 6.3 million people so far this year, millions of people continue to battle hunger on a daily basis. An estimated 8.25 million people, nearly half of the population, are in need of humanitarian assistance and protection.
Critical is also the funding of the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan for Somalia, which seeks more than $2.6 billion to meet the needs of 7.6 million people. As of November 9, the plan is only 40 percent funded, and aid agencies are having to prioritize the most vulnerable in areas with the greatest severity of needs.
Further information
Full text: Somalia Situation Report, 9 Nov 2023, UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, released November 9, 2023
https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-situation-report-9-nov-2023
Full text: Hundreds of thousands displaced by Somalia flooding, Islamic Relief, press release, published November 9, 2023
https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/hundreds-thousands-displaced-somalia-flooding
Full text: As Somalia faces once-in-a-century flooding, UN relief wing releases $25 million to jumpstart life-saving assistance, UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, press release, published November 9, 2023
https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-faces-once-century-flooding-un-relief-wing-releases-25-million-jumpstart-life-saving-assistance
Full text: El Niño expected to last at least until April 2024, World Meteorological Organization, press release, published November 8, 2023
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/el-ni%C3%B1o-expected-last-least-until-april-2024