A new United Nations report warns that people forced to flee war, violence and persecution are increasingly finding themselves on the front lines of the global climate crisis, exposed to a deadly combination of threats but without the funding and support to adapt. The warning comes as three-quarters of the world's more than 123 million forcibly displaced people live in countries heavily exposed to climate change.
The report, released on Tuesday by the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) in collaboration with expert organizations, research institutions and refugee-led groups, uses the latest data to show how climate shocks are interacting with conflict to push those already at risk into even more dire situations.
Of the more than 123 million forcibly displaced people worldwide, more than 90 million live in countries severely affected by climate change. More than 60 million are in places affected by both conflict and severe climate hazards. These include countries such as Sudan, Syria, Haiti, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lebanon, Myanmar, Ethiopia, Yemen, South Sudan and Somalia, which are experiencing some of the world's worst humanitarian crises.
According to the report, tens of millions of people uprooted by conflict and violence are increasingly without protection from the devastating effects of the global climate crisis. While violence and conflict remain the main drivers of displacement, the impact of climate change is immense and growing.
In 2023, 45 countries reported conflict-related displacement, 42 of which also reported disaster-related displacement, with millions of people bearing the burden of both conflict and the adverse effects of climate change.
According to the UNHCR report, the number of countries facing extreme climate-related hazards is expected to rise from 3 to 65 by 2040, the vast majority of which host displaced people. Similarly, most refugee settlements and camps are expected to experience twice as many days of dangerous heat by 2050.
“For the world’s most vulnerable people, climate change is a harsh reality that profoundly affects their lives,” said UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi.
“The climate crisis is driving displacement in regions already hosting large numbers of people uprooted by conflict and insecurity, compounding their plight and leaving them with nowhere safe to go.”
For example, the devastating conflict in Sudan has forced more than 11.6 million of people to flee, including 700,000 who have crossed into Chad, which has hosted refugees for decades and yet is one of the countries most exposed to climate change. Currently, Chad is impacted by the worst flooding in decades, with more than 1.9 million people affected.
In eastern Chad, where many refugees are located, heavy rains and flooding routinely destroy shelters and basic infrastructure and contaminate fresh water, the impacts of climate change are exacerbating the already harsh living conditions.
At the same time, many who fled the fighting but remain internally displaced in Sudan are at risk of further displacement due to severe flooding that has devastated the country.
Similarly, 72 percent of Myanmar refugees have sought safety in Bangladesh, where natural hazards such as cyclones and floods are considered extreme.
Meanwhile, 86 percent of internationally displaced Afghans, refugees and asylum seekers have sought refuge in Iran and Pakistan, both of which face even greater climate risks than their home country.
Following a devastating historic drought in the arid zone of the Horn of Africa between late 2020 and early 2023, much of the region was hit by heavy rains and floods in 2023 and early 2024.
Somalia is still recovering from the historic drought, followed by heavy rains and floods - the worst in decades - that put thousands of people at risk across the country. As of October 2024, an estimated 4.8 million Somalis are displaced, mostly due to flooding, conflict and insecurity, and drought.
With 4.3 million people forcibly displaced, South Sudan has the highest proportion of displaced people - one third - of any country in Africa. The situation is exacerbated by the war in Sudan, which has caused more than 836,000 people to flee across the border into South Sudan.
South Sudan is also one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Drought and flooding contribute to food insecurity. Consecutive years of record flooding have led to widespread displacement, loss of farmland and destruction of livelihoods.
“In our region, where so many people have been displaced for so many years, we see the effects of climate change before our very eyes,” said Grace Dorong, a climate activist and former refugee living in South Sudan.
“I hope the voices of the people in this report help decision-makers to understand that if not addressed, forced displacement – and the multiplying effect of climate change – will get worse. But if they listen to us, we can be part of the solution, too.”
The report, "No Escape: On the Frontlines of Climate, Conflict and Displacement" is UNHCR's first climate report and examines the intersection of climate and displacement, gaps in current climate financing, the future of legal protection for those affected, and the need for investment in resilience projects in fragile and conflict-affected settings.
The report highlights that climate finance is failing to reach refugees, host communities and others in fragile and conflict-affected states, rapidly diminishing their ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Currently, extremely fragile states receive only about US$2 per person in annual adaptation funding, a staggering shortfall compared to US$161 per person in non-fragile states. When investment does reach fragile states, more than 90 percent goes to capital cities, while other places rarely benefit.
The report's findings are released during the COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, where UNHCR is calling for increased climate finance to reach those most in need. The UN Refugee Agency is also urging states to protect forcibly displaced people who face the added threat of climate disasters, and to give them and the communities that host them a voice in funding and policy decisions.
“The climate emergency represents a deep injustice. People forced to flee, and the communities hosting them, are the least responsible for carbon emissions yet are paying the highest price,” Grandi said.
“The billions of dollars in climate financing never reach them, and humanitarian assistance cannot adequately cover the ever-widening gap. Solutions are at hand, but we need urgent action. Without proper resources and support, those affected will be trapped.”
Further information
Full text: No Escape: On the Frontlines of Climate Change, Conflict and Forced Displacement, UNHCR, report, published November 12, 2024
https://www.unhcr.org/media/no-escape-frontlines-climate-change-conflict-and-forced-displacement