As the conflict in the Middle East grinds on, its ripple effects are being felt far beyond the region, driving up the cost of food, fuel, and humanitarian aid, and disrupting critical supply routes. For the millions of people already living in fragile and conflict-affected areas around the world, the consequences are immediate and severe: delayed assistance, reduced access to essential goods and deepening hardship.
On Friday, the United Nations warned that mounting logistical challenges and rising transport costs are undermining global relief efforts and wreaking havoc on the lives and rights of the most vulnerable.
Heightened insecurity and instability around key Gulf routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, are exacerbating the crisis by pushing up the prices of basic goods and delaying the delivery of essential supplies, Carlotta Wolf, spokesperson for the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), told reporters in Geneva.
“Rising transport, food and fuel costs disproportionately affect people who are already living in emergencies, including millions of refugees and displaced people who are among the hardest hit, while also reducing the ability of aid agencies to deliver timely assistance,” she said.
Wolf explained that UNHCR has been forced to adapt to the situation by rerouting sea cargo and increasingly relying on alternative land corridors, which leads to longer transport times and generates additional costs.
Since the start of the crisis, freight rates from countries where relief items are sourced have risen by nearly 18 percent, while the capacity of UNHCR’s global transport providers has dropped from 97 to 77 percent.
“For some shipments, costs have more than doubled, such as transport costs for relief items from UNHCR global stockpiles in Dubai to our Sudan and Chad operations,” Wolf said.
The UNHCR spokesperson expressed particular concern about the situation in Africa, which is home to many overlapping and tragically neglected displacement crises.
In Kenya, home to one of the UNHCR's global stockpiles, rising fuel prices have impacted the availability of trucks to transport emergency supplies to major aid operations in Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan. These countries collectively host over 16 million forcibly displaced people.
In Sudan, which is experiencing the world's largest displacement crisis, the cost of delivering aid has doubled in recent months, while rerouting shipments around the Cape of Good Hope has added up to 25 days to delivery times.
Wolf said that this meant that “people in dire need are receiving things later than needed”.
If instability in the Middle East persisted, rising costs, delays and limited transport capacity would likely further constrain humanitarian operations, with serious consequences for the lives of millions of refugees and displaced people worldwide.
Wolf further stressed that UNHCR operations globally are only 23 percent funded out of the required total of US$8.5 billion.
“Each and every dollar that is spent additionally on transportation is a dollar less that we can provide to people forced to flee […]. The impact for the people that we serve is already there,” Wolf said, providing another example.
In countries most affected by the current situation in the Middle East, including Iran, Lebanon, and Afghanistan, operations were funded at only 11 to 30 percent. This meant that if more money had to be spent on transportation, less could be done for those in need.
Restrictions on the free passage of fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz are also driving up food prices, and inflation is rising. This means that people who are already struggling to survive in emergency situations can afford even fewer basic goods, the UNHCR spokesperson said.
On Thursday in New York, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that if the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is prolonged, it could push tens of millions into poverty and lead to 45 million more people facing extreme hunger. This would result in immense suffering, particularly among the world’s most vulnerable populations.
“As with every conflict, the whole of humanity is paying the price – even if a few are reaping huge profits. The pain will be felt for a long time to come,” he said.
Guterres stressed that the longer this "vital artery" remains blocked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage.
“And the higher the cost to humanity. Developing countries will be hit the hardest, as crushing debt impedes their ability to cope. With lost jobs, deeper poverty, and more hunger. The crisis has already locked in losses for months to come,” he added.
On Friday in Geneva, Jeremy Laurence, spokesperson for the UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR), underscored the devastating and immediate impact on human rights of the situation, specifically the lack of fuel.
“A small farmer in Africa or Asia or Latin America can't operate his machinery on his small plot of land” which serves to sustain his extended family, he said. Generators which run on diesel fuel are put out of commission, while school buses cannot operate and children are deprived of an education.
“It always impacts the most vulnerable first,” he added.